Aug. 22, 2013—Sales of autonomous vehicles will grow from fewer than 8,000 annually in 2020 to 95.4 million in 2035, according to a new report from Navigant Research.
Autonomous vehicles will represent 75 percent of all light-duty vehicle sales by that time.
According to the report, combinations of advanced driver assistance features, such as adaptive speed control, automatic emergency braking and lane departure warning, have already been introduced in some 2014 vehicle models.
“Fully autonomous vehicles are unlikely to reach the market suddenly,” said David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “Instead, progressively more capable systems that can assume control of certain aspects of driving will be introduced gradually. The first features will most likely be self-parking, traffic jam assistance, and freeway cruising—well-defined situations that lend themselves to control by upgraded versions of today’s onboard systems.”
One of the main barriers to fully automated vehicles driving is the legal requirement that all vehicles must have a driver in control at all times. Some states have begun to issue licenses to companies conducting testing of autonomous driving features on public highways under controlled conditions.