June 27, 2018—The U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to grow 3.4 percent a year, on average, through 2021, according to the "2018 Joint Channel Forecast Model" produced by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and Auto Care Association (ACA).
In dollar terms, automotive aftermarket sales will grow to $327 billion in 2021 from $286 billion last year, based on key aftermarket drivers and the impact of confident consumers, buoyed by a strong job market and lower personal tax rates, said Bill Long AASA president and chief operating officer.
The net increase of $41 billion translates to a 3.4-percent compound annual growth rate over the four years, the AASA and ACA said. On a year-by-year basis, the forecast model shows growth higher in 2018 and tapering off slightly through 2021. The forecast does not include data for the medium- and heavy-duty markets.
The growth projected for 2017-21 lags slightly the actual growth tracked by the groups for the 2013-17 period of 3.8 percent. The ACA attributed this in part to a revision of the data by IHS Markit to incorporate the 2012 U.S. Economic Census data and lower-than-projected GDP growth in 2017.
The forecast also reflects influences driving evolution in the aftermarket, Long said, such as new and emerging technologies, changes in the distribution model and changes in consumers' expectations for mobility.
"The sustained growth projected in the forecast is not only a result of key economic upswings,"ACA president and CEO Bill Hanvey said, "but also technology that is creating opportunities for new products, services and solutions across our market. These new technologies continue to widen the reach and scope of our industry as well as enable opportunities to add to the 4.6 million job powerhouse that we are."
The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of the trade groups by IHS Markit, the Southfield, Mich.-based economic and market information firm. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau's Economic Census, IMR and Polk data and proprietary IHS Markit economic analysis and forecasting models.
