The Auto Care Association (ACA), in collaboration with MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, has released its 2024 Joint Forecast Model, prepared by S&P Global.
The report highlighted 2023 as a strong year for the aftermarket, with total sales rising by 8.6% to $391 billion, in spite of continued inflation. General auto repair sectors, as well as dealership service centers and auto parts stores, outpaced initial predictions for growth.
Rising inflation has allowed businesses to charge more for their services to keep pace, though this is expected to gradually decline and meet the Fed’s goals by late 2025. In spite of inflation, rising wages and a strong labor market have kept consumers spending, though they remain pessimistic about their finances.
Looking to this year, raised inflation will continue to prevent potential federal rate cuts being implemented, and consumers will remain pessimistic. The labor market is still performing strongly and wages are still on the rise, though, meaning customers will be more willing to spend.
The report predicts a 5.9% increase in sales for the aftermarket in 2024. From 2025-2027, an average growth rate of 4.5% is expected as the effects of inflation die down.
“The data reveals promising growth prospects for our industry, showcasing resilience in the face of challenges,” said ACA President and CEO Bill Hanvey. “As we navigate the evolving market dynamics, industry stakeholders can expect a wealth of opportunities to emerge, driven by consumer demand, the aging vehicle population and technological advancements.”
